Friday 26 April 2024

France to fall out of world’s top ten economies – IMF

 

The country’s share of global GDP will drop below 2%, the fund has projected

France to fall out of world’s top ten economies – IMF

Slow economic growth will push France out of list of world’s ten largest economies in five years, according to an updated global economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund.

The Washington-based institution expects France’s contribution to global economic growth in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms to drop to 1.98% in 2029, compared to 2.2% recorded by IMF analysts last year.

The fund’s latest projections indicate that France’s budget deficit will remain above 4% until 2029, with public debt expected to exceed 115% of gross domestic product (GDP). The European Commission previously signalled potential conflicts with EU fiscal rules in its response to France’s 2024 budget plan, stressing that the current outlook poses the risks of a negative adjustment by global rating agencies.

According to the database, updated by the organisation earlier this month, Britain – whose share of global gross domestic product growth in 2029 is expected to represent 2.2% on a PPP basis – will be ranked the world’s tenth biggest economy. Meanwhile, Türkiye is projected to take ninth place, as its share of global growth over the next five years will reach 2.09%.

The top five of contributors to the global economy will be China, projected to account for 19.48% of world GDP growth through 2029, the US (14.72%), India (9.23%), Japan (3.21%) and Indonesia (2.79%). The top ten is also expected to include Germany (2.77%), Russia (2.71%) and Brazil (2.19%).

Earlier this month, the IMF raised its global growth forecast for the current year, concluding that the world economy had proved “surprisingly resilient.” The economists expect the global GDP to amount to 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast. Next year, growth is expected to expand at the same pace of 3.2%.

https://www.rt.com/business/596617-imf-france-world-top-economies/

US seizure of Russian assets would accelerate de-dollarization – ex-IMF official

 

American lawmakers approved a bill allowing the confiscation of funds on Wednesday

US seizure of Russian assets would accelerate de-dollarization – ex-IMF official 

The “weaponization” of the US dollar through the seizure of frozen Russian assets could prompt a global shift away from the greenback, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) official.  

US President Joe Biden signed a bill this week allowing the administration to seize Russian state assets held in America.  

Washington has long insisted on the confiscation of the funds to aid Ukraine in its war effort against Moscow. Meanwhile, G7 finance chiefs and EU officials continue to express concerns about the legal precedent of any asset seizure. The US and its allies have frozen around $300 billion in Russian central bank assets, around $5 billion of which is sitting in US banks as part of Ukraine-related sanctions.  

As quoted by Bloomberg, former IMF official Eswar Prasad has warned that “America’s supercharged weaponization of its currency through the seizure of dollar reserves will certainly cause US rivals [to look at de-dollarization].”  

The so-called REPO Act, which Biden signed on Wednesday along with a $61 billion military aid package for Kiev, authorized the US president to seize Russian state assets held in American banks and transfer them to a Ukraine reconstruction fund.  

“It is necessary and urgent for our international coalition to unlock the value of immobilized Russian sovereign assets,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement on Wednesday. 

The REPO provision has intensified debate over the potential consequences of foreign demand for US Treasuries and use of the dollar, Bloomberg noted. The outlet also said it is unlikely that the US will seize Russian assets without agreement from other G7 nations and the EU.   

JPMorgan analyst Katherine Lei was quoted as saying that “China may accelerate the process of de-dollarization.” About 70% of Chinese international trade is still denominated in dollars, according to JPMorgan estimates.   

“Countries that use the dollar for international trade and finance need to be sure that their assets will not be seized on the whim of the US,” Paola Subacchi, author of The Cost of Free Money, told the outlet.  

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned on Thursday that Moscow could downgrade diplomatic relations with Washington if the US expropriates frozen Russian funds.  

Moscow’s response to the seizure of its assets could include economic and diplomatic countermeasures, Ryabkov said.

https://www.rt.com/business/596610-us-russian-frozen-assets-seizure-de-dollarization/

Columbia Protests Now and in ‘68

 

 


Protests in and around Columbia University in support of Palestine and against Israeli occupation. Photograph Source: SWinxy – CC BY-SA 4.0

The student protests on the campus of Columbia University this April have reminded me of the protests that took place there 56 years ago. Along with about  700 or so other men and women, I was arrested and jailed at the Tombs in Manhattan. Those arrests didn’t curtail student protests. Indeed, there were demonstrations later that year and again in 1969, 1970, 1971 and 1972. When push comes to shove, Columbia has called on the police again and again and the police have arrived in force and have made arrests.

The current president of Columbia, Minouche Shafik, an Egyptian-born American economist and a baroness, has surely not acted on her own impulses to establish what she might call “Law and Order.” Rather, she has surely followed the orders, the prayers and wishes of trustees, deep pockets and alumni who have wanted to see demonstrators punished for exercising freedom of speech and for practicing old-fashioned American civil disobedience.

Robert Kraft, the New England Patriots CEO, and a major financial contributor to Columbia —and my classmate— recently said, “I am no longer confident that Columbia can protect its students and staff and I am not comfortable supporting the university until corrective action is taken.” He also said,  “I believe in free speech, say whatever you want, but pay the consequences.”  That doesn’t sound like free speech, not if it comes with a price tag. Back then, the protests were largely about Vietnam. Now, they’re largely about Gaza and Israel. The names have changed, but the underlying story is much the same. Shouldn’t students today have a significant role to play when and where it comes to university investment?

Columbia University president Shafik was deputy governor of the Bank of England, and a vice president at the World Bank. She surely knows who has buttered her side of the crumpet and who has poured her cup of tea. Over many decades, Columbia has known very well how to make cosmetic changes and alter its image. It is now, as it was in the 1960s, about making money, expanding and occupying more and more of the island of Manhattan, and about mass-producing students to become consumers and citizens loyal to the social institutions that have made the US a global superpower.

In the late 1960s and early 1970s, we raised awareness about the university’s collaboration with the war machine and with institutions of racism and patriarchy. Columbia began to hire women and Black and brown intellectuals and to revise the curriculum in response to student demands to make education relevant to their own lives and their times.

In 1968, I was not a student at Columbia. I was already a professor at the State University of New York who had graduated from the college in 1963 when it was still locked in the mindset of the Cold War, and McCarthyism and could not  be accurately described as an “Ivory Tower.” In 1968, my beef with Columbia had its roots in my undergraduate years when I was rebuked for using Marxist sources for essays I wrote for teachers and slammed for thinking critically and questioning academic dogma. In 1969 when I was arrested again for my role during a campus protest, one of my former professors said that since I was a “Columbia scholar and a Columbia gentleman” I should apologize to the university. When I declined to knuckle under, the powers that be had me arrested and jailed. Who then was the scholar and the gentleman?

My freshman year at Columbia, my classmates and I were required to read Jacques Barzun’s tome The House of Intellect. It didn’t take long for me to see that the house of intellect was a house of cards. In 1968, we didn’t blow it down or blow it up, but we rocked it for a time and then watched as it put its house back in order and restored its foundations.

I don’t believe it’s possible to dismantle Columbia now, much as it wasn’t possible to dismantle it in 1968. It’s too big, too powerful, too wealthy and too rapacious. But protesters today can certainly raise awareness about the political and economic ties between the US “power elite,” as Columbia professor, C. Wright Mills called it, and the power elite in Israel. Things may not improve in the Middle East any time soon, but they won’t stay the same way they have been for the past half-century, either. The student protesters with their tents on campus are a sure sign that the times have changing and will go on “a-changin'” as Dylan suggested.

Too bad Columbia is locked in the past. Too bad it has given up on meaningful dialogue with student protesters today. Too bad it doesn’t see the handwriting on the wall. Over the past few weeks, I’ve wondered what Columbia professor Edward Said, the author of Orientalism—and for a time an independent member of the Palestinian National Council—would think and say. Indeed, he seemed to occupy a kind of middle ground when he observed in 2003, the year he died, that with regard to Palestine, “nobody has a claim that overrides all the others and entitles that person with that so-called claim to drive people out!”

That middle ground seems to have evaporated. Indeed, the ground under our own feet has shifted dramatically.  There is less room for dissenting opinions today than there was in ’68, near the height of the war in Vietnam. There are also more virulent anti-Arab and more virulent anti-Jewish voices today than there were then. Better prepare for the rocky road ahead.

Jonah Raskin is the author of Beat Blues, San Francisco, 1955.              

https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/04/25/columbia-protests-now-and-in-68/

How Many Israelis Killed by ‘Friendly Fire’?

 

The IDF appears to have fired on hostages on several occasions throughout the Gaza war


by  

An elderly Israeli woman abducted by Hamas during the group’s October 7 attack was likely gunned down by an IDF aircraft, an internal military probe has found. To date, Tel Aviv has offered few details about other captives who may have been killed by friendly fire.

The 67-year-old grandmother, Efrat Katz, was taken hostage from the Nir Oz Kibbutz during Hamas’ surprise assault on Israel last year. Footage of her kidnapping showed the woman squeezed into the bed of a truck alongside her daughter and two grandchildren, a harrowing clip that would mark some of Katz’s final moments.The results of an internal Israeli military probe were published on April 5, acknowledging the IDF not only “failed to protect civilians” at the kibbutz, but had inadvertently contributed to the carnage.

“It appears that during the battles and the airstrikes, one of the combat helicopters that took part in the fighting fired at a vehicle that had terrorists in it, and, in retrospect, according to the evidence, it turned out that there were also hostages in it,” the investigation found. “As a result of the shooting, most of the terrorists manning the vehicles were killed, and apparently the late Efrat Katz.”

However, the probe concluded that because the hostages “could not be distinguished” from Palestinian fighters during the IDF counterattack, the helicopter crew was not at fault for Katz’s death. For the airmen, “the shooting was defined as shooting at a vehicle with terrorists,” the report continued.

According to Al Jazeera, Katz’s daughter and two grandchildren survived the attack, and were later freed following a prisoner exchange agreed with Hamas in November. The Palestinian armed group kidnapped more than 200 people on October 7 – among them Israeli soldiers and civilians in addition to foreign nationals – with around half of them released as part of last year’s deal.

Collateral Damage

Katz’s untimely death is merely one among many reported ‘friendly fire’ casualties inflicted by Israeli forces on and since October 7.

While the IDF has acknowledged 41 deaths among its own troops resulting from “operational accidents” throughout the war, it offers no official figures for hostages killed under similar circumstances.

In one rare exception, the military publicized the shooting of three Israeli hostages during an IDF ground raid in Gaza City last December – with one of the men killed as he waved a white flag and pleaded for help in Hebrew. None of the troops involved faced repercussions after the incident, which was deemed a simple mistake amid the fog of war.

To date, Tel Aviv has confirmed that 33 of the remaining 136 captives in Gaza have been killed, though officials have declined to specify their cause of death. The spokesperson for Hamas’s armed al-Qassam wing, Abu Obeida, placed that figure much higher, claiming at least 70 hostages had been killed as a result of Israeli operations as of March 1.

Survivors of Hamas’ October onslaught have also described brazen friendly-fire attacks by Israeli tank crews, with Kibbutz Be’eri resident Yasmin Porat telling local media that some hostages were “undoubtedly” shot by their own people.

“They eliminated everyone, including the hostages,” Porat said in an interview with Israeli broadcaster Kan, adding that “After insane crossfire, two tank shells were shot into the house… at that moment everyone was killed.”

An October 20 report in the Hebrew edition of Haaretz also detailed the lethal response at Be’eri, citing a member of the community’s security team, Tovel Escapa, who recounted indiscriminate firing on homes.

“Only after the commanders in the field made difficult decisions – including shelling houses on their occupants in order to eliminate the terrorists along with the hostages – did the IDF complete the takeover of the kibbutz,” the paper reported. “The price was terrible: at least 112 Be’eri people were killed.” The outlet did not clarify whether those deaths were inflicted by Israeli forces alone.

Underscoring the confusion during Israel’s response on October 7, other local media reports noted that IDF helicopters likely fired on civilians at the infamous Nova music festival – where more than 350 people lost their lives, most at the hands of Hamas. Israeli pilots later described “tremendous difficulty” in distinguishing fighters from noncombatants amid the chaos, while some gunship operators reportedly launched barrages against unidentified targets “without authorization from superiors.”

“[One] soldier told me, ‘Fire over there. The terrorists are there.’ I asked him, ‘Are there any civilians there?’ His response was, ‘I don’t know, just fire,’” one serviceman told Israel’s Channel 12, referring to an operation near the Holit kibbutz.

Hannibal Returns?

Officially, as of 2016 Israel’s military says it no longer employs the controversial ‘Hannibal Directive’ – a policy instructing soldiers to sacrifice their own comrades to prevent capture by enemy forces. However, some IDF troops have indicated the measure may still be in place to this day.

Asked about the policy by name during a recent media interview, IDF field commander Bar Zonshein said he ordered a strike on his own men after they had been captured by Hamas fighters on October 7 – even describing a formal procedure to invoke the supposedly-defunct directive.

Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper similarly reported that troops had been ordered to strike invading Hamas militants “at all costs” – even if that meant endangering hostages – while Israeli Col. Nof Erez described the October 7 response as a “mass Hannibal” operation.

Inspired by the capture of IDF troops during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon in the 1980s, the policy was seemingly designed to avoid complex and embarrassing prisoner swap deals with the likes of Hezbollah and Hamas, which frequently entail Israeli concessions. The protocol has been deployed repeatedly in subsequent conflicts, with the IDF adopting a highly permissive stance toward civilian casualties while carrying out the directive.

Though Palestinian noncombatants have borne the brunt of that policy since its inception decades ago, a number of Israeli observers have questioned whether Hannibal was invoked against their fellow citizens on October 7.

“We must determine exactly what happened that day. Was there a decision to eliminate the terrorists even if there was a significant risk that the hostages would also be killed? Was the Hannibal Directive applied to civilians?” asked Haaretz reporter Noa Limone.

Omri Shafroni, a resident of Be’eri and a relative of one of the victims killed in Hamas’ attack, has demanded an official investigation into Israel’s response, noting the circumstances of many civilian deaths remain unexplained.

“I do not rule out the possibility that [my relative] and others were killed by IDF fire. It could be that they died from the terrorists’ fire, or it could be that they died from the IDF’s fire, because there was a very heavy firefight,” he said last November, voicing frustration over the lack of any probe.

“It is very strange to me that until now we have not conducted an operational investigation into an event in which 13 hostages were apparently murdered and no negotiations were carried out,” Shafroni added.


Will Porter is assistant news editor at the Libertarian Institute and a regular contributor at Antiwar.com. Find more of his work at Consortium News and ZeroHedge.

https://original.antiwar.com/Will_Porter/2024/04/25/how-many-israelis-killed-by-friendly-fire/

Extremist Israelis storm, perform rituals at Al-Aqsa Mosque complex

 Hundreds of Israeli extremists entered the holy site, under the protection of Israeli police, official Palestinian media reported.

Extremist Israelis stormed occupied East Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque complex on Wednesday, under the protection of Israeli police.

The official Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that they numbered in the hundreds, and carried out rituals at site, the third holiest in Islam.

It comes after around 172 Israeli extremists raided the site and performed rituals on Monday, according to Wafa.

Under a longstanding status-quo agreement, prayer at Al-Aqsa is reserved for Muslims.

While Al-Aqsa is a highly revered holy site for Muslims, Jews consider the complex the most sacred site in their religion, believing it to be the location of their two ancient  temples

Many Israeli extremists seek to either divide Al-Aqsa between Jews and Muslims in terms of time and space available, or to replace the mosque with a new temple.

Al-Aqsa is located in the Old City, part of occupied East Jerusalem.

Israeli authorities and settlers seek to strip East Jerusalem of its Palestinian Muslim and Christian character and turn it into a Jewish-Israeli area.

Palestinians view the city's eastern sector, which Israel illegally annexed in 1980 after capturing it in 1967, as the capital of their future independent state.

Almost the entire international community rejects Israel's annexation and sovereignty claims over Jerusalem.

Across East Jerusalem and the rest of the occupied West Bank, there are more than 700,000 Israeli illegal settlers.

The construction and expansion of settlements are aimed at taking over Palestinian territory.

Settlements breach international law and are considered a key barrier to a workable two-state solution as they carve up Palestinian land.

Al-Aqsa is the holiest Muslim site in Palestine, followed by the Ibrahimi Mosque in the West Bank city of Hebron.

The Ibrahimi Mosque has been split into two parts – one side remains for Muslims while the other was transformed into Jewish space.

The site was the location of a massacre in 1994, when Israel-American extremist Baruch Goldstein opened fire on Muslim worshippers, killing 29 people.

A further 125 people were also wounded in the attack.

https://www.newarab.com/news/extremist-israelis-storm-perform-rituals-al-aqsa-mosque

ByteDance Will Shut Down TikTok in US Rather Than Comply with Divestment Demand

 

by  | Apr 25, 2024

tiktok logo

ByteDance says it will not sell off its popular video-sharing app TikTok after President Joe Biden signed a law that will ban the platform from American users in nine months if it is not sold away from Chinese ownership. 

Several sources inside ByteDance say TikTok is not for sale, Reuters reported Thursday. The company officials explained that while TikTok is only a small portion of ByteDance’s business, the technology used by the platform is also utilized across ByteDance’s other services. The company believes selling TikTok will hurt its other business. 

On Wednesday, President Biden signed a bill that will ban TikTok in nine months if the platform does not divest of all Chinese ownership. Some 170 million Americans—including Biden’s own reelection campaign—use the platform. 

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew said he believes the company can defeat the ban in court on constitutional grounds and argued the platform will not be sold or banned. “Rest assured, we aren’t going anywhere,” Chew said. “The facts and the Constitution are on our side, and we expect to prevail again.”

Senator Rand Paul also voiced hopes TikTok would prevail in court. “The censors who abound in Congress will likely vote to ban TikTok or force a change in ownership. It will likely soon be law,” Paul wrote in a recent op-ed published by Reason. “I think the Supreme Court will ultimately rule it unconstitutional, because it would violate the First Amendment rights of over 100 million Americans who use TikTok to express themselves.”

American politicians argue TikTok must be banned, or at least severed from ByteDance, because the app presents a national security risk. They claim that Beijing could utilize the site’s data and algorithm to wage an intelligence or disinformation campaign against Americans. 

However, there is no proof China has used TikTok for any nefarious operations against the US. Additionally, Chew has argued that TikTok is a global company and not merely Chinese-owned. During a congressional hearing last year, the executive said that three of TikTok’s five board members are Americans, while 60% of TikTok is owned by global investment firms and another 20% is owned by employees. The remaining 20% stake is held by ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming.  

About Kyle Anzalone

Kyle Anzalone is news editor of the Libertarian Institute, opinion editor of Antiwar.com and co-host of Conflicts of Interest with Will Porter and Connor Freeman.
https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/bytedance-to-shut-down-tiktok-in-us-over-divestment-demand/

Yemen’s Houthis Target Two Ships in Gulf of Aden

 

Yemen’s Houthis Target Two Ships in Gulf of Aden

The Houthi leader is threatening to expand attacks on Israeli-linked shipping into the Indian Ocean

Yemen’s Houthis targeted commercial ships in the Gulf of Aden on Wednesday and Thursday as part of their campaign to protest the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.

The attacks came after a relative lull in Houthi operations following months of frequent attacks. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, claimed they hit the Maersk Yorktown, a US-flagged, owned, and operated container ship that has an American crew.

However, US Central Command said a Houthi missile was intercepted that appeared to be targeting the Maersk Yorktown. CENTCOM said that “a coalition vessel successfully engaged one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM)” that was fired from Houthi-controlled Yemen. CENTCOM also said its forces downed four drones over Yemen on Wednesday.

The following day, the Houthis claimed another attack on the MSC Darwin, a Liberian-flagged container ship. The British military’s UK Maritime Trade Operations Center also reported the attack and said the “vessel and all crew are safe.”

Also on Thursday, the Houthi leader Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said Ansar Allah forces would expand attacks on Israeli shipping into the Indian Ocean, a threat he first made back in March. Al-Houthi noted how his forces first started attacking Israel-linked commercial shipping to show support for Gaza and expanded to include British and American shipping when the US and the UK launched a new bombing campaign in Yemen on January 12.

The US and UK have launched hundreds of missile strikes on Houthi-controlled Yemen, which is where between 70% to 80% of Yemenis live. The campaign has not deterred the Houthis, and the US said recently that it was considering “diplomacy” as the strikes have failed. The Houthis have been clear that they would stop if there’s a ceasefire in Gaza.

The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became more of a capable fighting force during that time.

The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.

https://news.antiwar.com/2024/04/25/yemens-houthis-target-two-ships-in-gulf-of-aden/